Three MKs: The narrow margin that could decide Israel's next government
With less than 24 hours until voting, coalition math hinges on whether a tiny Haredi faction or a former prime minister will bridge the gap to 61 seats.
By Jonathan Ramirez ·
The distance between a stable government and a second election in Israel may come down to three seats. With less than a day remaining before the vote begins, political figures are mapping out scenarios that rely on unexpected alliances. The central question is whether the next cabinet will be built by the current governing bloc or the opposition, and who holds the tie-breaking power.
Assessments within the political establishment suggest Agudat Yisrael, the three-MK Haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could support a government led by the opposition. This potential backing would likely be exchanged for specific budgetary agreements. However, even with Goldknopf’s support, the arithmetic might still require votes from Arab parties to reach the 61-seat majority threshold.
The idea of Haredi cooperation with the change bloc is not new. In August, Maariv reported that Agudat Yisrael was examining options, including potential cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions arose amid tensions within United Torah Judaism. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition’s conduct, while the rival Degel Hatorah faction conveyed a lack of confidence in Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government.
Uncertainty deepened after Rabbi Dov Lando sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to Netanyahu’s political bloc. Yet, Goldknopf faces a steep obstacle. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments indicate that any move toward the change bloc could prompt his supporters to defect to Likud or Otzma Yehudit.
Another scenario focuses on former prime minister Naftali Bennett. If neither bloc secures a clear majority, Bennett might determine the next government’s composition. Some believe he is the only leader in the change bloc capable of joining a Netanyahu-led cabinet, given his background on the Right. This move, however, would require him to shift his political support base, a complex decision given the current makeup of his party.
Avigdor Liberman has also been cited as a potential wildcard, having previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. Yet, personal and political disagreements between the two leaders make such an alliance unlikely. For now, these remain calculations rather than agreements. The final count will determine if these hypothetical bridges become real political structures.
The political establishment is weighing these options in real-time. No final deals have been reached between the parties. The outcome depends on whether Goldknopf can withstand the pressure from his base or if Bennett is willing to cross the aisle again. The next 24 hours will provide the numbers that define the path forward.
