Lula Defeats Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.3 Million Votes in Brazilian Runoff

Brazil’s political establishment watched a historic reversal unfold on Sunday as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president. The 80-year-old incumbent defeated his challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, in the final runoff vote.

With nearly 99 percent of ballots counted, Lula captured 51.75 percent of the vote compared to 48.25 percent for Bolsonaro. The margin represented a shift of 6.5 million votes from the first round earlier this month. Lula had trailed by 2.2 million votes in that initial count but finished ahead by 4.3 million votes on Sunday.

The victory is statistically rare in modern Brazilian history. Since the country returned to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who placed second in the first round had previously won the final election. Analysts attribute the shift primarily to voter turnout. Abstention rates dropped from a record 21.08 percent in the first round to 19.21 percent in the runoff, a change that benefited Lula’s base, which is often located farther from polling stations.

Reactions in São Paulo were mixed, with supporters celebrating on the streets while opponents expressed frustration. On Saturday, more than one million people gathered on Rio’s Copacabana beach, followed by a larger crowd marching on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to the avenue to watch the results, waving red flags. Camilo Buarque, 35, told reporters that the event demonstrated the strength of democracy.

Some voters in São Paulo expressed anger over an alleged attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt voting by sabotaging public transport in areas that lean toward Lula. Lucas Lopes, 32, described the move as another coup attempt, though the effort ultimately failed. Caio Marques, a 40-year-old photographer from Franca, noted that the left had woken up for the second round.

The result poses a setback for the Bolsonaro family and their international allies. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the defeated candidate, is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup and resides under house arrest in Brasília. He had hoped his son’s victory would lead to his release and a role in government. The outcome also challenges US President Donald Trump’s strategy of securing pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, a list that currently includes figures in Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, will now prepare to take office again. His political career began in the late 1970s as a union leader in the industrial suburbs of São Paulo. After losing three previous presidential bids, he first became president in 2002 and later won a third term in 2022 against Jair Bolsonaro.