Three Haredi MPs may decide Israel's next government

Voters in Israel face a fragmented result that could leave both major political blocs short of a working majority. The path to a new government may rest with a three-member religious faction and a former prime minister who sits outside the main opposition. If neither side wins enough seats to rule alone, the final cabinet could depend on budgetary deals rather than traditional party alliances.

The Knesset requires 61 seats for a majority. Neither the Likud-led right nor the opposition change bloc currently guarantees that number. Agudat Yisrael, the haredi party headed by MK Yitzhak Goldknopf, holds three of the 120 seats. Political figures are reviewing scenarios where this small group supports an opposition-led administration in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. Even with that support, the government might still require votes from Arab parties to pass legislation.

Negotiations are complicated by internal disagreements within the United Torah Judaism umbrella party. Tensions between Agudat Yisrael and the Degel Hatorah faction have centered on the military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Netanyahu bloc. These moves have increased uncertainty about whether the religious parties will stay with the current government or shift their support.

Goldknopf faces a distinct challenge. His base of voters is largely aligned with the right. Assessments indicate that if he backs a government led by the change bloc, some of his supporters may defect to Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk could limit his leverage during coalition talks. The faction has explored new political options since August, including potential cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot, according to reports by Maariv.

Attention also turns to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. He could determine the shape of the next government if neither bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold. One possibility is that Bennett joins a Netanyahu-led government. This is considered a remote scenario because Bennett would need to shift his base of support. His background on the right makes him a unique candidate for such a move, but the makeup of his current party would complicate the transition.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure. He previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu-led government. However, current assessments suggest Liberman is far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The central question in upcoming negotiations will be which leader is willing to move their political base to form a viable coalition.