Trump's Midterm Role: Rallies, Distance, and Approval Numbers

Voters across the nation are casting their ballots on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, to determine which party will control Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. The Associated Press describes this midterm election as a direct referendum on the president's performance. With all 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate up for grabs, the outcome will shape the legislative landscape for the remainder of Trump's term. Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate, setting a high bar for Democrats who need net gains of three House districts and four Senate seats to achieve majorities in both chambers.

The president has been actively involved in the campaign, holding dozens of rallies in key states including Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. At a recent event in Salina, Kansas, Trump urged supporters to vote with him in mind, saying, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." This strategy highlights the central role he plays in shaping the narrative for Republican candidates, even though his name does not appear on the ballot. The president's presence aims to energize the base and frame the election as a choice between his leadership and the opposition's agenda.

Despite this high visibility, many Republican candidates have kept a professional distance from the president during the final stretch of the campaign. This strategic retreat is often attributed to the president's approval numbers, which remain a significant factor in competitive districts. Only 35% of U.S. Adults approve of Trump's job performance, while 25% approve of his handling of the economy. Additionally, about seven in ten voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for high prices. These figures suggest that while Trump drives turnout, his popularity poses a risk in swing districts where margins are thin.

The economic strain is a primary driver of voter sentiment. The AP notes that voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. In Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, one voter named Mark Barker stated that he has been following Trump closely and believes he is doing an awesome job. In contrast, James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, cited rising costs as his primary concern, noting that he is paying more for taxes, healthcare, and everyday items. These personal accounts reflect the broader national divide between those who support the administration's policies and those who feel the financial burden of the current economic climate.

Trump has also continued to make claims about voting fraud, asserting that noncitizens vote in large numbers. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California, and the Justice Department has threatened to prosecute local election officials. These actions have led to concerns among Democrats about potential interference and intimidation. A federal judge temporarily barred the administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, citing risks to eligible voters and state authority. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California officials segregate ballots from suspected noncitizens. These legal battles add another layer of complexity to an already contentious election day.

The financial dynamics of the race are also notable, as the 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. At the candidate level, however, Democrats outraised their opponents. An AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This heavy investment in Republican-leaning areas suggests a strategy to solidify the base and ensure high turnout, while Democrats focus on competitive districts where every vote counts.

Turnout remains the critical variable in this election. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized that everything depends on turnout, stating, "If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene countered that the American people are angry and want change. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure that mail ballots are counted on time, reflecting the logistical challenges of a high-turnout election.

The stakes extend beyond the immediate control of Congress. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker if his party takes the House, and he has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while complicating the path for Vice President JD Vance. Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to beat the historical midterm pattern of seat loss, but new congressional maps in states like Florida and Texas may not vote as originally drawn.

Wall Street is closely watching the results, as Reuters notes that control of Congress could impact investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The election also determines the balance of power in the governorships, with 36 races on the ballot. Democrats hope to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades, while Republicans seek to maintain their current advantage. The outcome of these races will influence policy implementation and legislative priorities in the states, further shaping the political landscape for the next two years.