Likud split ahead of Israeli vote
Party insiders debate turnout efforts by rival nonprofits as polls show high uncertainty.
By Rafael Collins ·
Israelis will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, marking the end of the current government's full term. One day before the vote, internal disagreements within Likud are shaping the final hours of the campaign. Party members are split on their chances of victory, with some feeling assured by internal data and others worried about aggressive voter mobilization by opponents.
Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s internal polling, offers the optimistic view. A Likud source described the party’s mood as divided, stating, “We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so.” The source referred to Filber by his nickname, saying, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.”
Party officials are scrutinizing spending by nonprofits that support candidates opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sources claim these organizations are using funds for social media ads, physical signage, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They are also encouraging Israelis living abroad to return to vote. A Likud source labeled this activity “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” arguing it creates a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules.
Likud is also criticizing the Central Elections Committee. Party members claim the committee focused on enforcing limits on campaign videos and public resource usage while ignoring the nonprofits’ activities. However, sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or legal violations they cited.
On the ground, Likud is preparing a large field operation for Election Day. The goal is to prevent right-wing voters from splitting into smaller parties. Negotiations to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan, who participated in those talks, later issued a statement backing Winter. Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.
Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties also considered legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.
The election date of October 27 was set to allow the current government to complete its full term. With polls closed on Tuesday, the final outcome will depend on how many of those undecided voters turn out and which bloc secures a majority.
