National Coalition Holds 67 Seats as New Zealand Counts Special Ballots
With 14% of votes pending and a final count due Nov. 27, the incumbent government retains a one-seat margin over the opposition.
By Rafael Collins ·
New Zealanders will wait until late November to learn who controls the country's government. Preliminary results from Sunday's election show the National-led coalition holding 67 seats in the 131-member parliament. This gives the group a one-seat majority, a margin that could shift as the Electoral Commission tallies the remaining ballots.
Approximately 14 percent of total votes have not yet been counted. These outstanding votes are primarily special ballots cast by overseas residents and citizens who voted outside their local electorates. Historical data indicates these ballots often favor left-leaning parties, introducing uncertainty into the current projection.
The final count, which includes these special votes, is scheduled for release on November 27. Until that date, the National, ACT, and New Zealand First alliance will continue to operate as a caretaker government. Neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon nor opposition leader Chris Hipkins declared victory in post-election addresses.
Simeon Brown, the National Party campaign chair, told public broadcaster TVNZ that his party felt confident about forming a government with its coalition partners. He described the party's position as strong, though he acknowledged the result was bittersweet due to the loss of senior figures. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is among those who will not retain their seats in the next parliament.
The campaign focused heavily on economic concerns, including the cost of living and the state of the economy. The election results indicate a shift in voter support for the two major parties. Combined, National and Labour received less than 30 percent of the popular vote, the lowest level since the current electoral system was adopted in 1996.
The voting system in New Zealand is mixed-member proportional. Voters cast two ballots: one for a local constituency candidate and one for a political party. The parliament consists of 71 constituency seats and 60 party list seats. Political commentator Ben Thomas noted that tactical voting allowed National and the Maori party, Te Pati Maori, to win more constituency seats than their popular vote support would suggest.
This dynamic may result in the least proportional parliament since the system's introduction. If the National coalition loses its majority in the official count, the formation of a government becomes more complex. Either the current alliance or a left-leaning alternative would likely need the support of the centrist Opportunity Party, which is set to enter parliament for the first time.
Prime Minister Luxon has previously ruled out working with the centrist group. However, Simeon Brown did not dismiss the possibility of negotiations. Mona Krewel, a political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, stated that the Opportunity Party is viewed as pragmatic. She believes this alignment makes cooperation with National feasible for forming a stable government.
The political atmosphere in Wellington remains tense as leaders monitor the counting process. The final outcome on November 27 will determine whether the current coalition retains power or if a new alignment emerges. For now, the balance of power hangs by a thread until every special vote is counted and the final composition of the house is known.
