Gas and medical costs drove voters to Democrats in 2026 midterms

Americans returned control of Congress to Democrats on Tuesday because the cost of living rose faster than wages during the second year of Donald Trump’s presidency. The shift reflects a specific rejection of policies that increased household expenses for fuel, healthcare, and housing, rather than a broad rejection of the overall economic structure.

Unemployment remains low, and consumer spending has stayed resilient, yet voters prioritized their wallets over aggregate growth metrics. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, identified the conflict with Iran as the primary driver of this sentiment. She noted that without the war, the midterm election would have looked very different.

Oil prices reached four-year highs following the start of the conflict. Diesel prices hit all-time records, and gas prices were higher on this Election Day than at any previous point in history. Researchers at Brown University calculated that high gas and diesel prices alone added $1,150 to the average US household’s costs since the war began.

Rising fuel costs triggered a chain reaction in other markets. Bond yields surged, pushing mortgage rates up at their fastest pace in three years. For three consecutive years, paycheck gains had outpaced price hikes. That trend reversed in March. Since then, rebounding inflation has reduced the real pay of the average American.

Voters also blamed specific Republican policies for increased bills. The failure of Congress to extend Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies in 2025 caused monthly premiums to rise by an average of 58%. Electricity costs jumped 8.7% during Trump’s second term, a period in which the administration championed rapid growth for artificial intelligence.

Tariffs and immigration restrictions raised the cost of auto repairs by 12.3% since Trump took office. Homebuilding costs increased by 13.3%. According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs added $820 in taxes for the average American household this year.

Polling data shows a sharp decline in economic approval for the incumbent party. An October CNN poll found that Trump’s net approval on the economy stood at minus 46 points. That figure is worse than Joe Biden’s minus 31 point net approval in the final poll before he dropped out of the 2024 race. In October 2024, voters favored Trump over Kamala Harris as a better custodian of the economy by 15 percentage points.

Steven Durlauf, an economist at the University of Chicago, argued that the administration’s policies directly contributed to the inflation spike. He stated that even if Biden had mismanaged the economy, that fact did not exonerate Trump. Durlauf said voters have placed responsibility for the current price levels squarely on the current administration.

The disparity between asset owners and wage earners widened during this period. Wealthy Americans with stock market investments and home equity remained insulated from rising costs. Less affluent Americans, who often live paycheck to paycheck, faced a lack of available childcare and housing options. Durlauf described the middle-class ideal as becoming increasingly unobtainable.

Heather Long characterized the labor market as a lack-of-opportunity job market. While mass layoffs have not become the norm, applications from unemployed workers often go unanswered. The combination of high costs and stagnant job mobility created a sense of being stuck for many voters, driving their support for the opposition party.