Turkey pledges $500 billion energy overhaul before climate summit

Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar unveiled a new national roadmap on Friday, detailing a $500 billion investment strategy to transform Turkey’s power grid. The plan targets a major shift away from coal toward renewable sources in the run up to the COP31 climate summit scheduled for next week in Antalya.

The government aims to increase the share of electricity generated from solar and wind power from nearly 23% to more than quadruple that amount over the next 13 years. Bayraktar stated that this expansion is central to reaching a 40% reduction in emissions by 2040. He noted that the country currently generates 33% of its power from coal, making it Europe’s largest coal power generator according to the think tank Ember.

Electrification of the transport sector forms a key pillar of the strategy. The minister projected that the number of electric vehicles on Turkish roads will rise from approximately 500,000 to 20 million by 2040. He described this transition as necessary to meet the nation's pledge of net zero emissions by 2053. The plan explicitly frames this change as a fundamental alteration in how energy is consumed across the economy.

Funding the transition will require substantial capital, with the government estimating a total need of $500 billion. Approximately $210 billion of this sum will come from Turkish public sector companies. Bayraktar indicated that the remainder will rely heavily on foreign investment. He argued that global partners must share the financial burden if they are serious about combating climate change. "Everyone needs to take some responsibility and provide money for that," he said.

The ministry acknowledged that coal will remain part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future to ensure supply security. The sector currently employs between 30,000 and 40,000 workers. Bayraktar emphasized the need for a managed transition to protect these communities while moving toward cleaner sources. He also highlighted ongoing natural gas drilling in the Black Sea, with annual production set to double to 7.5 billion cubic meters.

Nuclear power will play a supporting role in the new energy landscape. The Akkuyu plant on the Mediterranean coast is nearing operational status, and plans are underway for a second station on the Black Sea. These additions are intended to help Turkey achieve energy independence by 2040. The minister described this target as highly ambitious given current market conditions.

The Climate Action Tracker currently rates Turkey’s climate targets as critically insufficient against the 2015 Paris Agreement goals. The agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Bayraktar said his primary message for world leaders at the upcoming summit would be the need for realistic and responsive policies. He noted that sanctions related to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran continue to complicate global energy efforts.