Trump approval hits 37% ahead of Tuesday's midterm vote
Polling data shows the president's support has fallen below a historical threshold that often precedes major congressional losses for the ruling party.
By Kaito Sokolov ·
37% is the number that has dominated political analysis this week. It represents the average of recent polls showing President Donald Trump's approval rating. This figure sits well below the 40% mark that historians and strategists identify as a danger zone for incumbent parties during midterm elections.
The drop marks a sharp decline from early 2025, when average polls showed Trump holding a 52% approval rating. As the election date of Tuesday, November 3, approaches, the shift in public sentiment has intensified focus on the potential outcomes for the Republican majority in Congress.
Polling data suggests the electoral pendulum is swinging against the White House. While Republicans are expected to face challenges in blue states, projections indicate losses in swing states and some deep red states. Trump won several of these states by double-digit margins in his previous three campaigns for the presidency.
In response, the president spent the final weekend of the campaign campaigning in Iowa and Kansas. He visited these states to support Senate candidates, a strategy that contrasts with his remote tele-rallies in 19 other states. This focused effort appears designed to limit Republican losses in key Senate races where the outcome remains close.
Political scientist Ruy Teixeira noted the internal challenges facing the opposition. Teixeira, who currently works with the American Enterprise Institute, published a list of questions for Democrats in October. He argued that the party must decide whether to prioritize the interests of white working-class voters over its current focus on race, gender, and social policy.
The upcoming vote will also test public confidence in the election system itself. While nonpartisan experts have generally defended the current voting infrastructure, the president has repeatedly questioned the integrity of results without providing specific evidence. This pattern began with his 2016 campaign and continued through the January 6, 2021, protests.
Analysts predict the Republican Party will lose its slim majority in the House. The Senate race remains too close to call, with Vice President JD Vance holding the tie-breaking vote if the chamber splits evenly. Democrats may win the House with a modest majority and potentially the Senate with a narrow margin, which would empower independent members over party leadership.
The next step is the vote itself. Millions of Americans will cast ballots on Tuesday, November 3. The results will determine the balance of power in Congress and set the stage for legislative battles in the coming years.
