Record Arab Turnout Could Block Netanyahu

Israelis voted in parliamentary elections on Tuesday, and Palestinian citizens of the state turned out in numbers far above the historical norm. Preliminary reports indicate that some Arab towns recorded participation rates exceeding 70 percent. In recent years, turnout in these communities typically ranged between 45 and 65 percent.

This surge in voting could prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from securing the 61 seats required to form a majority government. The Joint List and the United Arab List, or Ra'am, are projected to win up to 17 seats combined. That number is sufficient to stop Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition from reaching the threshold for power.

Many Palestinian citizens who usually abstain from voting chose to cast ballots this time. They viewed the election as an opportunity to challenge a government they perceive as hostile to Arabs. The current administration has enacted several measures that encouraged this shift. One such measure involved Jewish settlers attempting to establish an outpost on land in Majd al-Krum in the Upper Galilee.

Hussein Manna, a resident of Majd al-Krum, said the situation provoked those who had previously been indifferent. “They know very well what awaits us if this government returns to power,” Manna said. He noted that the prospect of the current coalition staying in office motivated many to participate.

Netanyahu and his far-right allies, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, targeted Arabs heavily during the campaign. Their rhetoric appears to have backfired, pushing more Palestinian citizens to vote for the Joint List and Ra'am. Walid al-Omari, a bureau chief for Al Jazeera in Palestine, described the situation as fateful for Netanyahu and the state's identity. He warned that if the current coalition remains, Israel will move further toward extremism.

Ahmad Tibi, head of the Arab Movement for Renewal, stated the primary goal is to remove the government of Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir. He criticized the leaders of other opposition parties for ruling out an alliance with the Arab parties. “What is the excuse? It is post-October 7, and this is a racist position,” Tibi said. He added that the Arab parties are ready to cooperate to block the current speaker of the Knesset, Amir Ohana, and prevent Netanyahu from leading a transitional government.

The Arab parties have specific demands for any new government. Tibi said the next administration should not be a government of peace but should exclude Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. The parties want dialogue on issues such as crime, home demolitions, and racism. They also seek a political stance on the occupation and war crimes.

Al-Omari outlined a potential path to a coalition. If Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party wins 53 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, wins eight, a 61-member coalition could be formed. This scenario would prevent Netanyahu from staying in power. During the campaign, Netanyahu posted AI-generated images of Arab voters to incite his base. The Joint List condemned these images as a misleading scene. Mohannad Mustafa, an academic in Israeli affairs, said Netanyahu considers the Arab vote illegitimate. He linked this tactic to the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, noting that Netanyahu had previously cited Rabin’s reliance on Arab lists.

Right-wing parties also deployed activists to polling stations. Tibi said these activists obstructed the process in towns like Taibe, Tira, and Qalansawe to create long lines. He believed the right-wing hoped voters would tire and leave without voting. Instead, he saw a determination to stay until voting was complete. The election outcome has implications for the Middle East, where Netanyahu’s government has been involved in conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Analysts note that a new government might alter these military engagements.