Lunar Logistics: New data suggests Artemis needs 22 rocket flights

A new estimate presented this week suggests that NASA will require approximately 22 launches of SpaceX’s Starship rocket to support the Artemis program’s goal of landing humans on the Moon. This figure emerged during the quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, where member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the specific risks associated with returning humans to the lunar surface. The revelation marks a significant shift in public understanding of the logistical demands behind the mission.

The number of required launches has historically been one of the most closely guarded figures within the agency. NASA has often treated this metric with intense secrecy, similar to how it protects sensitive nuclear codes, because it directly impacts the program’s timeline and budget. For years, the agency’s standard response to inquiries has been that the exact count is uncertain, leading to a general reluctance to commit to a specific number. This ambiguity has made the figure a moving target in the public eye.

In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who served as the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, provided a vague range to Ars Technica. She stated that while the agency had a general idea of the requirements, she was hesitant to specify the exact figure. She later clarified that the number fell within the range of high single digits to low double digits. This estimate implied roughly a dozen launches, a substantial volume that would involve deploying a depot Starship in low-Earth orbit followed by 11 tanker Starships to load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for the lunar voyage.

Other officials have previously suggested the requirement could be in the high teens, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in the plan. The underlying hope has always been that SpaceX would significantly improve the lift capacity of the Starship vehicle. Such improvements would theoretically reduce the number of tanker flights needed to fill the lander, thereby streamlining the operation. However, the latest data suggests this optimization may not occur as quickly as previously anticipated.

Concerns are now growing among some NASA officials that these performance improvements might not arrive soon enough to allow Starship to play a meaningful role in the Artemis goals for this decade. If the lift capacity does not increase dramatically, the agency must plan for the higher number of launches. This has implications for the safety and complexity of the operation, as more flights mean more opportunities for potential failures or delays.

The presentation by Precourt to the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel highlights the technical challenges of assembling a lunar lander in orbit. The process requires multiple refueling maneuvers in low-Earth orbit before the craft can depart for the Moon. The shift from an estimated dozen flights to over twenty indicates a more conservative approach to planning, acknowledging the current limitations of the rocket system rather than relying on future technological leaps.