Consumer Prices: Inflation Rate Climbs to 3.6% Ahead of Midterms

Consumer prices rose in September, marking the highest monthly jump since May.

The Department of Commerce reported on Thursday that the annual inflation rate reached 3.6% in September, up from 3.4% in August. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% rise seen the previous month. This acceleration comes less than a week before the midterm elections, where economic concerns remain a central focus for voters.

Oil prices continue to drive the trend. Following the war in Iran, domestic oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel, a sharp increase from the sub-$70 levels seen before the conflict. The surge in energy costs has contributed to higher gasoline prices, which currently average about $4.25 per gallon nationally. President Donald Trump campaigned on a promise in 2024 to lower prices, specifically targeting a gasoline price below $2 per gallon.

Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core inflation also accelerated. The annual rate for these underlying prices rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August. The month-over-month increase for core prices held steady at 0.3%, matching the figure from the prior month. Polls indicate that the rising costs have led to a more negative view of the economy and the administration’s management of prices among the majority of voters.

The next major economic indicator is scheduled for release in the coming days, providing further data on the state of the market before the election results are counted.