Georgia, Texas, Ohio State Face Upset Risks in College Football Week 10
Five top-25 programs play ranked opponents this weekend as the first College Football Playoff rankings release.
By Rafael Collins ·
The first official College Football Playoff rankings dropped this week, setting the stage for a chaotic stretch of play that runs through Selection Sunday. Committee members will determine seven at-large berths and one Group of Six slot, while the remaining four spots go to conference champions. Current estimates project Georgia, Utah, Miami, and UCLA as those champions. Miami, despite being ranked No. 1, avoids this week's risk list because it plays as a 7.5-point underdog at Notre Dame without star receiver Malachi Toney.
No. 2 Georgia travels to No. 10 Ole Miss, a team that has scored 20 or more points against the Bulldogs in both of their prior meetings this season. The Rebels are favored by 3.5 points. Georgia, which started the year with a 38-point average margin of victory, has scored 20 or fewer points in its last three games against Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has beaten Georgia in both of his career starts. A Rebel victory would keep multiple SEC Championship scenarios alive.
No. 3 Utah hosts No. 9 BYU in the Big 12’s most consequential matchup this weekend. The game kicks off at 10 a.m. local time in Salt Lake City. Utah is the projected conference leader, but BYU and Texas Tech are close behind. A win for the Cougars would put them in the driver’s seat for the conference title. The Holy War has never carried this much weight in the playoff discussion. BYU has won the last three meetings in the series, snapping a nine-game winning streak for Utah that lasted from 2010 to 2019.
No. 8 UCLA visits Minnesota, a team that lost in overtime at Indiana last week despite a 60-yard field goal in the final minute of regulation. The Bruins face a difficult travel schedule with a 12 p.m. ET kickoff, putting players on an early morning routine. Both teams rely heavily on defense, and the first squad to reach 20 points is likely to win. Minnesota’s recent win over then-No. 15 Iowa has put the Golden Gophers back on the playoff bubble.
No. 7 Texas plays at No. 18 Missouri, a team that leads the SEC in turnover margin with plus 8. The Longhorns have five games this season decided by a single possession and are missing key players Hollywood Smothers and Trevor Goosby to injury. Edge rusher Colin Simmons may return, though he missed the last two wins. Texas currently leads the nation with three wins over ranked opponents. A victory in Columbia would strengthen their resume for the committee.
No. 12 Ohio State hosts No. 23 Oregon, a team that has beaten Boise State and USC this season. The Buckeyes are 6-4 in their last 10 games under Ryan Day and must win to protect their playoff hopes after losing at USC. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey will make his second start. Oregon’s defense has been strong, but the Buckeyes have slipped in defensive metrics, ranking 12th in the Big Ten in opponents’ third-down conversion rate. The spread opened at 9.5 points but has shrunk to near a touchdown.
