Big Ten Football Favorites Miss Spreads by Nearly Two Points Per Game
Six top-20 teams from the conference are 8-28 against the spread, a performance that trails the league's recent dominance in national championships.
By Jonathan Ramirez ·
Big Ten football fans and bettors are facing a rough season. The conference has failed to meet expectations in a way no other league has matched this year. While injuries to key players have hurt specific teams, the overall performance against the spread stands out as a major disappointment.
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports notes that the Big Ten has fumbled the bag more than any other conference. Ohio State, which lived up to its status as a favorite, is now dealing with an injury to its starting quarterback. Oregon, another top contender, started poorly and has seen its struggles worsen since quarterback Dante Moore was sidelined for a month.
The timing of this slump is painful for the league. The Big Ten won three consecutive national titles with three different teams. Many projected that Oregon could become the fourth champion in that run. Even fans of the SEC had previously admitted that the SEC had lost its grip on the sport.
Gambling data reveals the scale of the issue. Big Ten teams are 36-44-2 against the spread when favored. This .450 winning percentage is the second-worst among all conferences, slightly ahead of the American Association's .449. However, the margin of defeat tells a starker story.
Big Ten favorites are missing their spreads by an average of 1.82 points per game. The next worst conference, the American, misses by only 0.44 points per game. This struggle occurs in a season where all Power Four favorites are covering at a 52.6% rate and winning by an average of 1.16 points when they hit.
The problems are concentrated in specific programs. The Big Ten had seven teams ranked in the top 20 of the preseason AP Top 25. Ohio State has performed as expected. The other six teams, including Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Washington, and Penn State, are a combined 8-28 against the spread as favorites. These teams are failing to cover by an average of 7.76 points per game, a gap larger than a touchdown.
Texas Tech and BYU have dropped out of the current power ratings discussion. The Big Ten's current standing reflects a sharp decline from the league's recent history of championship success.
